Saving the bond insurers: 5 fixes for the crisis

Just about everyone seems to have an idea on how to fix the troubled bond insurers and stave off a crisis that threatens to send the financial services sector into disarray.

Divide and survive
The plan: When testifying before Congress last week, New York Gov. Eliot Sptizer and State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo told lawmakers that the best solution would be to recapitalize the bond insurers. If that failed, they would break up these firms into a "good bank" that would manage their healthy municipal bond insurance business, and a "bad bank" to oversee the smaller structured finance arm. Each division would remain part of a holding company.

The prospects: Likely. Of all the different solutions being floated, this proposal has garnered the most interest. After the bond insurer FGIC was downgraded last week by Moody's, the company asked Dinallo's office for permission to break itself up. Its larger rivals Ambac and MBIA are also reportedly considering similar moves.

A break-up would prevent cities and towns - which buy insurance on bonds they sell to raise money for projects like roads, schools and bridges - from getting saddled with higher borrowing costs. But it is widely believed that, after a split, the structured finance arm would wither and die, meaning downgrades on the asset-backed securities issued by Wall Street and more writedowns.

Uncle Warren to the rescue
The plan: A little over a week ago, Warren Buffett proposed a bold solution for the bond insurance crisis by offering to take over $800 billion of the industry's municipal bond obligations.

Under his plan, companies like Ambac and MBIA would focus on their troubled structured finance arm, which are the source of the industry's woes.

The prospects: Slim to none. Even though the announcement of the plan garnered significant attention, it appears unlikely that any of the companies approached will accept the deal; one firm has already rejected the offer, according to Buffett. More importantly, the plan would impose a pretty stiff premium on the bond insurers, while they would lose control of their low-risk and profitable municipal bond business.

Can you spare $15 billion?
The plan: When New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo implored some of Wall Street's top firms to kick in about $15 billion to help bail out the capital-squeezed bond insurers late last month, their responses were only moderately better than a cold-shoulder.

While major financial firms have a vested interest in keeping the insurers afloat, they have their own capital problems after losing billions as a result of the credit crisis.

The prospects: Possible. While a bank bailout plan seems unlikely, it is not off the table. A coalition of banks including Citigroup, BNP Paribas, Wachovia and UBS are reportedly working on a bailout plan of Ambac, the nation's second-largest bond insurer. One considerable risk, however, is that there is no indication that a one-time capital infusion would save these troubled firms' credit ratings. Sean Egan of independent ratings shop Egan-Jones has publicly stated that the bond insurers require somewhere closer to $200 billion in capital.

Short-seller solution
The plan: Pershing Capital Management's Bill Ackman has been one of the leading critics of the bond insurance industry, but offered up his own remedy for the crisis Wednesday. Under his proposal, the company's structured finance division would take control of its municipal business, with the two remaining under the umbrella of the holding company.

The prospects: Very doubtful. While the plan would insulate the municipal business and provide support to the structured finance division, it is unlikely that the industry would want Ackman to decide its fate, given his long-standing role as critic and industry short-seller. He stands to benefit if companies like MBIA continue to see their stock tumble even further. Just hours after Ackman pitched his idea, MBIA publicly rejected his proposal.

Buyer beware
The plan: Like the bank bailout program, the notion of a private equity, or distressed investor rescue doesn't remain out of the realm of possibilities. MBIA, for example, has raised about $2.6 billion in capital this year, part of which came from private equity firm Warburg Pincus. And famed distressed investor and billionaire Wilbur Ross has repeatedly said he is looking to invest in one of the bond insurers.

The prospects: Possible. While selling a stake to an outside investor would be a quick fix for the bond insurers, it remains to be seen if they could raise enough capital to satisfy Moody's and Standard & Poor's requirements to sustain their `AAA' rating. What's more, it would not necessarily cure the systemic problems that plague the industry, an area that some, including MBIA's newly appointed CEO Joseph "Jay" Brown, are hoping to fix.

Oil prices start to cool

Crude futures head downwards after heating up on weak heating oil inventory report.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Thursday, despite a government report showing supplies of fuel used to make heating oil declined much more than expected.

Early Thursday afternoon, U.S. light crude for April delivery fell $2.39 cents to $97.31 a barrel. Oil traded up as much as 10 cents to $99.80 a barrel after the report's release at 10:30 a.m. ET, but have since retreated.

Traders initially thought the decline in distillates was demand-related, as colder temperatures in the Northeast have increased demand for heating oil, according to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

But now Flynn believes that traders realize the weak supply is refinery-related, suggesting an overall decline in demand.

"The market's coming back down to earth," said Flynn. "$100 a barrel isn't a price anymore, it's a destination. It gets to the level, then it backs off."

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 4.2 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a rise of 2.9 million barrels, according to a Dow Jones poll.

But distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, fell by 4.5 million barrels while analysts were looking for a 1.5 million barrel decline.

Refinery usage was lower than the previous week, operating at 83.5% capacity last week. And gasoline demand continued to fall, averaging just 9 million barrels per day over the past month.

These numbers are only a little higher than the same period last year.

Gasoline supplies rose by 1.1 million barrels, just above forecasts for a 1 million barrel rise.

Panning for black gold, a global challenge
Oil prices have soared recently as whispers of supply cuts and lower interest rates sent oil above $100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Demand for gasoline has continued to weaken, leading some traders to believe that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decide to cut its output at a March 5 meeting.

Also, in Federal Reserve meeting minutes released Wednesday, the U.S. central bank issued a weaker economic forecast for 2008, predicting slower growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation for the rest of the year. Some economists believe that the report indicated another interest rate cut is on its way.

An interest rate cut usually sends the dollar lower - and oil prices higher - as investors sell dollar-denominated securities and buy commodities as a hedge.

Also, oil is priced in dollars worldwide, so a falling dollar provides less incentive for oil-exporting counties to increase output, or for foreign consumers to cut back on oil use.

"It's a double-edged sword," said Flynn, who noted that when the Fed says the economy is bad, oil prices should go lower. But the Fed's solution to the weak economy - interest rate cuts - sends oil higher.

"So bad news is bullish news for oil," added Flynn.

After oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time on January 3, they pulled back to the mid-$80 range amid fears of a recession in the United States, the world's largest economy; however, oil prices have risen again by nearly $14 a barrel in the past few weeks.

Oil prices have risen nearly five-fold since 2002. Most analysts blame rising demand and tight supply. That has also attracted floods of investment money, and exaggerated the effects of supply disruptions.